Bitcoin halving is one of the most anticipated events in the crypto world, reducing miner rewards by 50% and historically triggering major bull runs. The last halving occurred in April 2024, and now, over a year later, investors are asking:
Is Bitcoin halving still affecting the market in 2025?
In this article, we’ll analyze:
- The historical impact of Bitcoin halvings
- Current market trends post-2024 halving
- Miner behavior and supply dynamics
- Long-term price predictions
What Is Bitcoin Halving?
How Bitcoin Halving Works
Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event that occurs every 210,000 blocks (roughly every four years). It cuts the block reward miners receive by 50%, slowing down the rate of new BTC entering circulation.
Past Halvings & Market Reactions
| Year | Block Reward Before | Block Reward After | BTC Price 1 Year Later |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 50 BTC | 25 BTC | ~1,000(from1,000(from12) |
| 2016 | 25 BTC | 12.5 BTC | ~2,500(from2,500(from650) |
| 2020 | 12.5 BTC | 6.25 BTC | ~60,000(from60,000(from8,500) |
| 2024 | 6.25 BTC | 3.125 BTC | ? (2025 analysis below) |
Historically, Bitcoin experiences a bull run 12-18 months after halving due to reduced supply and increased demand.
Bitcoin Halving’s Impact in 2025
1. Supply Shock & Price Action
- The 2024 halving reduced daily Bitcoin supply from 900 BTC to 450 BTC.
- With institutional demand (ETFs, corporate holdings) rising, scarcity is driving prices up.
- Analysts predict a new all-time high (ATH) in late 2025, following historical trends.
2. Miner Economics & Hash Rate
- Miners now earn 3.125 BTC per block, pushing less efficient miners out.
- Hash rate remains strong due to AI-powered mining innovations.
- Some miners are shifting to transaction fee reliance as block rewards diminish.
3. Institutional Influence vs. Halving Effects
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs (BlackRock, Fidelity) now play a bigger role in price discovery.
- While halving reduces supply, ETF inflows create new demand pressure.
- Some argue that institutional adoption is now a bigger driver than halving cycles.
Will Bitcoin Halving Still Matter in Future Cycles?
Arguments For:
✅ Fixed Supply: Only 21 million BTC will ever exist—halvings ensure scarcity.
✅ Historical Patterns: Past halvings led to bull markets (2013, 2017, 2021).
✅ HODLing Culture: Long-term holders accumulate before and after halvings.
Arguments Against:
❌ Institutional Dominance: ETFs and whales now control large portions of supply.
❌ Macro Factors: Global regulations, Fed rates, and tech advancements (quantum computing?) may overshadow halving effects.
❌ Diminishing Returns: Each halving’s impact may weaken as Bitcoin matures.
Expert Predictions for Bitcoin in 2025
- Standard Chartered: Predicts $150,000 BTC by end of 2025.
- ARK Invest: Expects $200,000+ BTC if ETF demand continues.
- PlanB (Stock-to-Flow Model): Suggests 100K−100K−500K range post-halving.
Conclusion: Is Bitcoin Halving Still Relevant in 2025?
Yes, but with nuances. While the 2024 halving continues to influence Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics, institutional players like ETFs now play a bigger short-term role. However, long-term scarcity due to halvings remains a core value proposition for Bitcoin.
Key Takeaways
✔ Bitcoin halving still affects supply, but institutional demand is a major new factor.
✔ 2025 could see a new ATH based on historical post-halving trends.
✔ Miners are adapting with AI and fee-based revenue models.
For more insights on Bitcoin and altcoin trends, check out our guide on Top 10 Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025.
